Solid Water blog

When to scale a channel, and when to test a new one

One of the most consequential decisions in growth marketing is also one of the least formally considered: when do you put more resource into a channel that is working, and when do you spend time finding a new one? Getting this wrong in either direction is expensive.

The case for scaling what works

When a channel is producing customers at or below your target CAC, with acceptable LTV and retention, the default should be to scale it. Each incremental pound spent in a channel you understand produces more predictable results than the same pound spent exploring an unknown one. The learning curve has already been paid for. The creative and messaging have been tested. The audience targeting is dialled in.
Founders who move away from working channels too quickly often do so because success makes the channel feel boring. The discipline is to stay with what is working until there is a clear, data-supported reason to change.

When a working channel stops working

The most reliable signal that a channel is approaching its limit is rising CAC without a corresponding change in spend. When the same budget produces fewer customers month on month, you have usually exhausted the most efficient audience segments and are now paying more to reach progressively less qualified people.
This happens to every channel eventually. It is predictable. The mistake is not noticing it until CAC has risen substantially, which means the business has been overpaying for acquisition while the early warning signs were available.

When to invest in channel exploration

New channel exploration should be a continuous, low-level activity rather than a crisis response. Allocating 10 to 15 percent of the marketing budget to testing new channels, even when existing channels are working, keeps the exploration muscle active and means the business is not starting from zero when a primary channel deteriorates.
A new channel test should be treated like a growth sprint: a specific hypothesis, a defined metric, a fixed time period, and a clear decision about what to do with the result. An inconclusive test that consumes budget without producing a clear yes or no is the most common and most wasteful form of channel exploration.

The mistake of chasing channels

The opposite failure mode is equally common: moving to a new channel every quarter because the current one is not producing miraculous results, without running each test seriously enough to generate a meaningful read.
A channel that does not work in a two-week test with a small budget may work very well with proper investment and time. Many channels require a minimum threshold of spend, content volume, or audience size before they produce meaningful results. Dismissing them before that threshold is reached produces no useful information and leaves the channel unexplored.
Scale channels that are working. Explore new ones continuously at a small fraction of budget. The signal to stop scaling is rising CAC. The signal to test a new channel is strategic planning, not crisis.